Three times in the ninth inning last Friday night in New York, new Dodgers closer Tanner Scott made the same simplistic, save-blowing mistake.
In an inning that saw Scott blow a three-run Dodgers lead — forcing the team into a 13-inning marathon that, despite eventually winning, their overworked bullpen could ill-afford — Scott got to two strikes against a Mets batter, only to leave a mistake pitch over the plate.
To Starling Marte, it was a 1-and-2 fastball up and over the middle, resulting in a leadoff single.
After a one-out walk to Pete Alonso, Scott had Jeff McNeil 2-and-2 before throwing a belt-high heater on the inner half that was ripped for a two-run triple.
Another two-strike count followed to Tyrone Taylor, but Scott’s 1-and-2 slider hung up around the heart of zone, leading to a tying single that marked Scott’s fourth blown save in 14 opportunities this year and raised his ERA to 3.42 — hardly the numbers expected out of an All-Star left-hander signed to a $72-million contract this offseason.
“I think the stuff is still good,” manager Dave Roberts said afterward. “It’s just right now, it just seems like when there is a mistake, they find some outfield grass or put a good swing on it.”
And lately, such mistakes have been coming in more abundance than usual for Scott, highlighting one early-season trend the Dodgers are now working to address.
“Right now, he’s just kind of living in the middle, the midline of the zone,” pitching coach Mark Prior said. “You leave it in that spot, more than likely they’re gonna put a good swing on it.”
Dodgers pitcher Tanner Scott embraces catcher Dalton Rushing after a 3-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on May 21.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
For a pitcher who struggled with command issues early in his career — before blossoming into one of the top left-handed relievers in the sport of the last several seasons — Scott is now seemingly suffering from the opposite problem.
So far this year, more than 58% of his pitches have been in the strike zone, a rate that is easily a personal career high (well up from his previous high mark of 52.4% last year) and ranks 18th among qualified big-league relievers.
On top of that, hitters have been on such offerings as well, making contact on 80% of swings against Scott’s pitches over the plate (compared to his 76% career rate) and averaging almost 92 mph of exit velocity on balls put in play (leaving Scott in the seventh percentile of MLB arms when it comes to batted ball contact).
The good news is that Scott has 25 strikeouts and only two walks. Even with his fastball playing a tick down velocity-wise (averaging 96.1 mph this year compared to 97 mph last year), he converted nine of his first 11 save opportunities, squandering only a pair of one-run leads while posting a sub-2.00 ERA through his first 21 appearances.
This past week, however, Scott was knocked around twice: Giving up three runs on two homers to the Arizona Diamondbacks last week (in another game that necessitated extra innings before the Dodgers came back to win) before his ninth-inning meltdown at Citi Field on Sunday.
“He’s actually been pretty good for us,” Roberts said of Scott’s performance overall. “But the last couple, the last two of three, he’s obviously given up leads.”
Scott said his increased aggressiveness in the strike zone has not been by design.
“I don’t even look at it,” he bristled when asked about his rise in in-zone pitch percentage this weekend. “I don’t even look at it.”
But Prior acknowledged it is something on the coaching staff’s radar.
“Obviously, we want strikes; more strikes than balls,” Prior said. “But he gets in situations where he can get into counts, and I think we’re just leaving too many balls in the zone late in counts, instead of going for more miss.”
Friday’s blown save being Exhibit A.
“I’m not putting [guys] away,” acknowledged Scott, whose whiff rate has also dropped to 26.6% this season compared to his 34.7% career average. “I’m not getting the swing-and-miss, and I’m keeping the ball in the zone too much.”
To Prior, it’s even OK if Scott starts “to walk a few more guys,” he said, “[if] in turn he can get more chase out of the zone when you have leverage.”
“He’s still a really good pitcher,” Prior added. “So we’re going to bank on him.”
Dodgers pitcher Tanner Scott throws from the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 20 at Dodger Stadium.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Right now, the Dodgers don’t have much of a choice.
Fellow high-leverage relievers Evan Phillips (forearm discomfort), Blake Treinen (forearm sprain), Kirby Yates (hamstring strain) and Michael Kopech (shoulder impingement) are all out injured. And while Kopech is on a minor-league rehab assignment, and Yates and Treinen are both beginning throwing programs, Phillips’ absence is starting to become “concerning,” Roberts acknowledged this weekend, with the team’s former ninth-inning fixture now going on three weeks without throwing because of an injury initially expected to keep him out for only the minimum 15 days.
“I’m getting a little kind of concerned,” Roberts said of Phillips, “but hoping for the best.”
It all makes Scott’s performance in save opportunities particularly crucial for the Dodgers right now.
Given the team’s MLB-high bullpen workload this year, Roberts has been forced to be selective when it comes to the usage of the few high-leverage relievers still at his disposal. Having Scott blow games in which the team has already burned its best other relief bullets, and could potentially face the added burden of resulting extra innings, are all taxing side effects the Dodgers are not currently equipped to handle.
“To be quite fair,” Roberts noted of Scott, whose 23 ⅔ innings are only fourth-most in the bullpen, “the other guys have been used a lot more than he has.”
Thus, while Scott might only require simple adjustments, such as better locating his fastball up and out of the zone and more consistently executing his slider in locations that induce more chase, enacting such changes quickly is paramount.
After all, the Dodgers made him one of the highest-paid relievers in baseball this offseason to stabilize their bullpen. And lately, he’s instead been one more source of unneeded flux.
